Like these of 2020, the American elections of 2022 consisted to start with of a confrontation between two totally different cultural fashions (see the article by Antoine de Tarlé on Telos of November 14). The problem of this confrontation is to know if the normal American mannequin can be in a position to withstand the present evolutions in direction of the secularization of American society, equality between women and men and that of the totally different ethnic teams that make up this society. The election evening exit ballot on voting within the Home of Representatives by Edison Analysis, in addition to two current Pew Analysis Middle surveys, one on People and faith and the opposite on what mother and father of scholars would love the college to show their youngsters, affirm that the political divide between Democrats and Republicans largely covers this cultural divide. In addition they make it doable to measure a really fascinating side of this confrontation, its significantly robust depth inside the white citizens.
Cultural mannequin and political vote
The motion to secularize American society makes the non secular query an more and more politically divisive problem. 45% of voters consider that the USA must be a Christian nation in comparison with 51% who suppose the other (Desk 1). That is the case for 67% of Republican voters however solely 29% of Democratic voters. Nevertheless, the renewal of generations by which this secularization takes place largely locations the Republican citizens on the defensive. Whereas 63% of the oldest voters need to stay in a Christian nation, that is the case for less than 23% of the youngest voters. And if three quarters of voters really feel a lack of affect of faith within the lifetime of society, 42% consider that this affect continues to be too nice, towards solely 22% that it isn’t sufficient.
Desk 1 – Assume the USA must be a Christian nation (%)
Supply: Pew Analysis Middle
This political divide is discovered within the opinions of fogeys of pupils as to what college ought to educate youngsters on the query of sexual orientation and on that of contraception. On sexual orientation, 87% of voters who consider that American society’s values on gender id and sexual orientation are altering for the higher voted Democratic, whereas 78% of those that suppose the other change for the more serious voted Republican.
If one examines the views of fogeys of Democratic and Republican college students on what faculties ought to educate youngsters in regards to the problem of sexual orientation, the variations between the 2 electorates is putting. Extra curiously, it’s inside the white citizens that the political polarization of cultural battle is strongest (Desk 2).
Desk 2 – What faculties ought to educate youngsters about sexual orientation (%)
Supply: Pew Analysis Middle
Desk 3 – What college ought to educate youngsters about sexuality (%)
Supply: Pew Analysis Middle
The identical observations may be made with regard to the query of sexuality (Desk 3) however the comparability of the 2 tables reveals that if the theme of contraception could be very buoyant for the Democrats, that of sexual orientation is much less so. insofar as black and Hispanic Democratic mother and father are much more reserved. This ingredient of the “woke” ideology isolates the white Democratic citizens.
Sociology of the vote of the white citizens
The polarization that interprets on the political degree the cultural battle that upsets American society being significantly robust inside the white citizens, allow us to look at the sociological variables used within the exit ballot that generate a very powerful results on the vote on this citizens . These are age, intercourse and degree of training. Allow us to first recall that the white citizens votes in majority for the Republican Get together whereas the opposite electorates vote in majority for the Democratic Get together (Desk 4).
Desk 4 – “Race”* and vote (%)
* We use right here the English time period race used within the survey.
Be aware that age and degree of training haven’t any political results inside the black and Hispanic electorates and that intercourse has none among the many black citizens. The truth that these variables have essential results primarily within the white citizens may imply that this citizens is experiencing a long-term evolution of the left/proper relationship particular and which might be carried out to the good thing about the Democrats.
Desk 5 – Age and vote within the white citizens (%)
Supply: Exit ballot
The impact of age on voting could be very clear. The query is to what extent it is a technology or life cycle impact. These figures must be in contrast with these from earlier surveys. Our speculation is that the technology impact is a very powerful. (desk 5)
As proven in Desk 6, gender and training degree are additionally strongly associated to voting within the white citizens. It’s the degree of training which, of the 2, produces a very powerful impact. The doable evolution of this citizens in direction of the left thus relies upon partially on the long-term enhance within the degree of research of the American inhabitants. As for the gender impact, the evolution of the white citizens in direction of the left relies upon right here on the doable enhance, specifically by the renewal of the generations, of the proportion of ladies acquired by the concepts of equality between women and men. girls. Ladies with the very best degree of training are the group that votes probably the most in favor of the Democratic Get together (Desk 6).
Desk 6 – Intercourse, degree of training and vote within the white citizens (%)
Supply : exit ballot
The query of the legality of abortion
The difficulty of abortion deserves particular consideration because it performed a serious function within the current elections because of the Supreme Court docket’s current determination to overturn its landmark 1973 ruling defending the best to abortion on the federal, Roe v. wade, and to ship the choice again to the federated states. We all know that just about two-thirds of voters are in favor of its legalization and we are able to suppose, because the examination of desk 7 suggests, that the place of the Republicans on this theme performed an essential function of their disappointing ends in the midterms. .
Desk 7 – Reactions to the reversal of the Roe v. wade by the Supreme Court docket and vote
Supply: Exit ballot
Allow us to first be aware that within the pattern the overwhelming majority of respondents are both dissatisfied or indignant. Above all, this query could be very politically polarizing since these happy or enthusiastic in regards to the current determination of the Supreme Court docket voted very overwhelmingly Republican whereas indignant voters voted overwhelmingly Democratic. The political polarization on this problem has been all of the stronger since between 2007 and 2022 the proportion of Democratic voters in favor of legalizing abortion has risen from 63% to 84%, that of Republican voters remaining secure at 38%. .
It seems from these information that the Republican Get together made a strategic error by favoring in its marketing campaign the cultural battle by which it’s on the defensive. However these information additionally present that the theme of private selection of sexual id is just not a promising theme for the Democratic Get together. However, the protection of the best to abortion definitely is.
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