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French divisions 2022: the surroundings, a significant situation within the considerations of the French

Does a summer time of utmost climate occasions and an autumn of vitality stress have an effect on the state of opinion and alter political preferences? Gilles Finchelstein, Managing Director of the Jean-Jaurès Basis, attracts classes on this space from the tenth wave of the “French Fractures” barometer produced by Ipsos, Sopra-Steria, The worldCevipof and the Basis.

First lesson: the surroundings is the precedence of everybody and quite a lot of.

Confirmed by all of the surveys carried out this yr, that is the second precedence – cited by 34% of the panellists. The surroundings is way behind buying energy (54%), however clearly forward of the way forward for pensions and the well being system (26%), immigration (18%) or safety (18%) . Affirmation right here once more, this precedence is broadly shared whether or not one is a lady or a person, wealthy or poor, rural or city and even younger or outdated – the 18-24 yr olds are definitely extra quite a few than the over 70s to quote the surroundings as a precedence (with a niche of just about 20 factors) however, no matter age, the surroundings is the second precedence.

Second lesson: there’s now a consensus on the fact of local weather change however solely a majority on the causes of this variation.

French and worldwide information has undoubtedly accelerated consciousness: practically 90% of French individuals contemplate that “we’re experiencing local weather change”. Alternatively, solely 61% of French individuals share the IPCC consensus on the causes of this variation, i.e. “primarily human exercise” – the others contemplating particularly that it’s a “pure phenomenon” (16 %) or that we “can not know” (8%). This skepticism is split: it’s extra the actual fact of the oldest (27 factors of distinction between the 18-24 years and the +70 years), of the much less certified (22 factors of distinction between these with out diploma and the baccalaureate +5), but additionally sympathizers of the far proper (57 factors distinction between the sympathizers of Europe Écologie-Les Verts and the sympathizers of Reconquête!).

Third lesson: the French are ready for in-depth adjustments.

They aren’t in determined fatalism: solely 10% imagine that “nothing might be accomplished” to battle in opposition to local weather change. They aren’t blissfully technical: solely 14% assume that the answer will come from scientific improvements. Nor are they into violent activism: 73% (however solely 50% of EE-LV and LFI supporters) contemplate violence “unacceptable” throughout militant ecological actions or demonstrations. They’re, quite the opposite, 68% to plead for an in-depth change – whether or not it’s about our existence (30%), or the manufacturing strategies of firms (38%).

Fourth lesson: the French are keen to alter however don’t wish to be alone in making the trouble.

There’s, on this topic, a shift highlighted by the survey and which is essential. 66% of French individuals say they’re able to “dramatically change their lifestyle”. This can be a excessive determine, but it surely ought to be famous that this determine is down 13 factors in comparison with 2021, that solely a minority (46%) settle for that these adjustments entail monetary sacrifices and that, above all, 69% share the concept that they’re already making numerous effort and that it’s as much as the state and firms to behave primarily.

Fifth lesson: confidence in nuclear energy is clearly progressing.

The general public debate was animated each by the announcement of a relaunch of the nuclear program – with the EPR2 venture – and by EDF’s difficulties – with the shutdown of a big a part of the nuclear fleet. . The primary occasion clearly took priority over the second: the nuclear sector is an “establishment” – within the broad sense of the phrase – which enjoys a excessive degree of belief (59%, far forward of “massive firms” or “banks”) however, much more, who sees his confidence enhance by 11 factors in comparison with 2021.

Sixth lesson: the ecologist get together not solely doesn’t take political benefit of the progress of environmental considerations however sees quite the opposite, paradoxically not less than obvious, its picture deteriorating considerably.

On the one hand, whereas it was already weak on its credibility, it’s now marginalized: 21% of French individuals contemplate EE-LV “able to governing”, this can be a decline of 11 factors in comparison with 2020 and it’s the get together with the weakest help on this situation. Alternatively, the place it was sturdy, it’s now trivialized. The desirability of its social venture was its nice power in 2020: down 12 factors, it’s now on the similar degree as all the opposite events – the evolution in comparison with Renaissance is spectacular on this respect: EE-LV was 14 factors forward in 2020, he’s now two factors behind. Proximity was EE-LV’s different nice power: 52% of French individuals thought of the get together “near their considerations”; the determine is down 13 factors and, once more, trivializes the environmentalist get together.

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